A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
